Waste in 2026: Predictions and Promise

Robotic sorting of materials at a Material Recovery Facility (MRF)

By Sarah Currie-Halpern

In a perfect world, 2026 would be the year we cut global plastic waste in half, clean up the Pacific Garbage Patch, address microplastic pollution in our waterways, solve every recycling backlog, and, well, the list goes on. Part of what makes working in waste reduction periodically frustrating is the slow pace of change.

Waste reduction advocates everywhere have learned to love steady and incremental progress, and that’s what we’re likely to see in 2026. None of us are counting on a dramatic, system-wide disruption in the form of a breakthrough technology or mass behavioral shift. We are, however, looking forward to meaningful gains in waste reduction efforts on the ground and in the halls of power.

Plenty is bound to stay the same. Landfills will remain a primary disposal method. Recycling systems will continue to struggle with contamination, market volatility, and material limitations. There’s nothing that indicates a major change in the consumption levels of most developed economies.

We shouldn’t write this off as stagnation, since policy alignments and infrastructure improvements take years to fully materialize. In other words, the biggest successes in waste reduction in 2026 will be the results of gradual operational refinement and cultural normalization—and will hopefully continue well into 2027.

Prediction #1: The steady rise of reusables continues

Reusable cup system by OKAPI

One of the most positive trends heading into 2026 is the upward growth of reusable systems, especially packaging. The global reusable packaging market size is projected to reach $190.1 billion by 2030, a significant increase from its 2024 estimated valuation of $135.8 billion. The foodservice industry, which accounted for nearly 30% of single-use packaging consumption last year, is also taking major strides towards reusable alternatives. Currently valued at $462 million, the reusable cup and take-away container systems market will likely reach $1.19 billion by 2036. From this vantage point, 2026 will be an essential chapter in a multi-year journey in the reusable sector.

At the local level, reuse initiatives such as refill programs and repair and lending models are increasingly common. The same goes for secondhand and resale, with Facebook Marketplace serving four times as many customers as Amazon. Reuse, repair, and secondhand have already shifted from niche sustainability practices to everyday options. That momentum will keep rolling in 2026.

Prediction #2: Anti-Single-Use Legislation Expands

Policy was one of the biggest drivers of waste-related changes in 2025. It will drive even more in 2026. 

Bans on highly visible items like plastic bags and straws are now commonplace throughout the U.S., and legislation is expanding to address a wider range of disposable packaging and foodware. Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) laws are already in place in seven states, and expected to be on the 2026 legislative agendas in Hawaii, Illinois, Massachusetts, and North Carolina. Existing bans and mandates on material restrictions will get stricter—and hopefully more comprehensible for the businesses affected. 

Regulatory momentum is thankfully becoming more predictable. This is great for businesses, who can plan for compliance rather than just hastily react to new mandates. Thanks to pre-compliance planning, single-use materials are no longer the default operational choice. In 2026, disposability will finally become an outdated model.

Prediction #3: Municipal Composting Programs Take Off

California and New York are leading the way on municipal composting, and we should expect more cities and states to follow in 2026. 

It’s ecological, but it’s also just sensible. Food waste must be managed at scale to reduce methane emissions and put nutrients back in the soil, and landfill capacity is tightening. For local governments, organic diversion is a highly practical and comparatively low-cost way to meet this challenge. 

Large-scale commercial composting facility

On the ground, this means introducing curbside organics collection, re-considering the accepted materials criteria (compostable serviceware often being the biggest challenge), and investing in public education. Contamination and participation challenges are inevitable, but there are more models than ever before for managing them. Composting, once considered an optional program, is going to ascend to the status of essential infrastructure. 

The Defining Trend: Normalization Over Transformation

Barring some out-of-nowhere technological breakthrough, we’re probably not going to see some massive, world-shaking shift in the waste management sphere. We will, however, see the normalization of the policies, behavioral shifts, and programs that lead to incremental change. Composting will go from something your hippie neighbor does in her backyard to a normal part of trash pickup day. The controversy of anti-single-use policies will feel muted at best. You’ll forget you ever had plastic forks in your DoorDash order.

The best case scenario for 2026 is one in which waste reduction and diversion systems stop being novel and become durable. Waste management is set to move in a clearer and more disciplined direction this year. It’s not the sexiest trend, but it’s one worth celebrating.