Four ways Trump’s tariffs could transform recycling

source: iStock

By Ushma Pandya, Think Zero LLC

It can be difficult to know where to look when it comes to President Trump’s sweeping tariffs. Implemented rather indiscriminately, the “Liberation Day” tariffs have upset the balance of an untold number of economies, industries, and individual businesses that depend on international trade. This very much includes the waste and recycled materials industries, which are heavily reliant on international collaboration.

This year’s tariffs present a new reality for the waste and recycling industries, one that has some promise and a number of major pitfalls. Here are four ways Trump’s tariffs stand to transform waste management in and beyond American shores: 

1. Trigger a new plastic waste crisis

More specifically, these tariffs could trigger a new recycled polythene (PE) crisis. In 2024, the U.S. exported 2.4 million tons of PE to China—more than the U.S. sends to the entire European bloc and accounting for roughly 16.8% of total U.S. PE exports. Escalating U.S.-China trade war tariffs now jeopardize this exchange, and are likely to move companies in both countries to manufacture more virgin PE. Once that virgin plastic is used, it can’t necessarily be recycled. The U.S. doesn’t have the facilities and recycling capacity to keep all the PE it produces in circulation, which means it will be bound for landfills, incinerators, and the ocean.

2. Hinder construction of updated recycling infrastructure

Much of the blame for the disruption of projects related to improving and expanding domestic recycling infrastructure can be laid at the feet of Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency. DOGE has frozen federal grants and loans critical to projects like the planned plastics recycling plant in Erie, Pennsylvania, which would have been one of the biggest recycling plants in the world upon completion. But even without those federal loan freezes, projects like that would have faltered. New tariffs on essential construction materials and equipment—especially the 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports implemented in March—stand in the way of building these facilities and, by extension, the jobs they create.

3. Stall efforts to phase out single-use plastics

25% tariffs on steel and aluminum will affect more than just the construction industries that use those materials en masse. Aluminum in particular is a crucial material for food, drink, and packaging manufacturers transitioning away from single-use plastic. In March, Coca-Cola CEO James Quincey told reporters, “If one package suffers some increase in input costs, we continue to have other packaging offerings that will allow us to compete in the affordability space,” specifically citing more PET bottles as a suitable replacement if “aluminium cans become more expensive.” In the context of multi-billion corporations like Coca-Cola, this could reverse progress made on single-use plastics practically overnight.

4. Create new demand for recycled steel

One silver lining here is that certain tariffs have the potential to increase metal recycling supply and demand on the domestic level. The cost of making new metals is high with or without tariffs, making recycled metal a perpetually attractive alternative. Manufacturers scrambling for alternatives could heat up the domestic market for recycled metal. According to Shelie Miller, a sustainability expert and professor at the University of Michigan, 70% of steel used in the U.S. is already recycled content, and the Trump administration’s domestic manufacturing goals could push this number higher.

In the short term, the impacts of these tariffs remain to be seen. Trump has a habit of reversing, postponing, and modifying his own trade-related measures, so we can’t automatically assume what will (or won’t) come next. What hasn’t changed is the importance of promoting reuse before recycling—an essential ecologically-minded tactic that makes a difference regardless of what may happen with tariffs.